Inside the Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine
How will the pandemic end, and what could be its lasting impact on global healthcare?
On May 27, I participated in a panel discussion with science and biotechnology leaders on Covid-19 vaccine development efforts. Here’s what I learned about:
How we’ll beat Covid-19
How to earn the public trust in a vaccine
How we may even leave our healthcare system better after the SARS2 virus
1. When will a coronavirus vaccine be available?
Experts think by the spring of 2021, it’s conceivable we could have enough supply of vaccines for all of the US.
2. How effective will a vaccine be?
Scientists talk about how protective a vaccine is. If a vaccine is protective 50%, that meansit cuts your chance of getting symptomatic Covid-19 in half. A successful vaccine would be at least 50–70% protective. A person may have a high level of antibodies in their blood, but that may not change your chances of getting a serious infection. Then the antibodies aren’t enough or not the right kind.
3. Who are the leading players?
Moderna and Oxford / AstraZeneca have the most advanced vaccines in clinical studies. They’re likely to be the first ones to present results. There are also groups in China, but US experts say it’s hard to fully trust data coming out of China.
4. Where does the flu vaccine fit in?
Experts say it’s likely the coronavirus vaccine will be combined with the flu vaccine. This will be a pentavalent vaccine, as in 5 versions.Right now we have quadrivalent flu vaccine. We’ll add a 5th one.
That will become the new seasonal vaccine we get for the long run. Because we’ll want to make sure we get the strongest immune response.
5. How long will immunity to the virus last?
Experts believe there’s a decent chance people’s immunity to SARS2 will wane after 1–2 years.
However, there may be a silver lining by getting more people to take a flu shot. We may see flu deaths drop because people take the vaccine more seriously. In the long run we may end up saving more lives because of flu.
6. Could coronavirus therapies be used to treat other viral infections?
Yes, potentially. There’s a decent chance these drugs will work not just for the coronavirus, but also on the 4 viruses that cause the common cold.
The US will stockpile massive does of these drugs in case other coronaviruses hit (e.g. SARS3, SARS4). But the vaccine may also be a life-saving drug for the elderly and sick, a patient population for whom common cold can be tragic. Doctors will be able to pull this drug off the shelf and cure them of the common cold.
7. Will people get to choose which vaccine they take?
The most likely scenario: We won’t have enough vaccine available for people to have a choice. There will be 330 million courses of vaccines for the US, and all others will be rushed out to other countries that need them. We won’t get a choice until the world has settled down and we have excess supply. Then we’ll get into seasonal, long-term supply.
Insurance companies will decide which vaccine they pay for. They’ll be approved for emergency use. Drug companies that get emergency use authorization (EUA) will be allowed to provide the vaccine initially for protection before providing more complete clinical data.
8. What about the rest of the world?
The coronavirus is a global pandemic. A vaccine must be distributed to the whole world to consider the problem solved.
The US can afford an expensive vaccine. Let’s say a vaccine cost $1,000 a person. That would add up to a cost of $330 billion for all Americans — not exactly cheap, but still a bargain compared to what we’ve lost in economic activity (measured in the trillions).
What about the rest of the world? Will other countries be able to afford the vaccine at the same cost?
We need to be mindful of the whole world to consider the problem solved. Vaccine production must be scalable enough for the whole world to get it. We’ll rely on big drug companies that have huge manufacturing capabilities and can churn out a billion doses of a vaccine.
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